EIA Storage Explorer

Rigs are a leading indicator, roughly 6 to 9 months ahead. A rig added today drills its first well in a few weeks, the well usually waits one to three months for a frac crew, then needs pipeline hookup. Producers also add rigs because they plan to grow. So a rising rig count tends to show up as rising production about two to three quarters later, and a falling count as slower growth or decline. More rigs means possibly more future production, not certainly: it depends on how productive each rig is and on how many wells are completed.

Watch completions and DUCs, not only rigs. Production comes from completed wells. Drilled-but-uncompleted wells (DUCs) are a buffer: when completions run ahead of drilling, the DUC count falls and production can grow with flat or falling rigs (as from 2022 into 2026). When the DUC count stops falling, production growth has to come from new drilling, and the rig count matters more again.

Rigs are getting more productive. Longer laterals and faster drilling mean each rig delivers more wells and more gas than a few years ago, so the same rig count supports more output. Use the per-rig chart to translate a rig change into gas.

Oil rigs drive associated gas. In the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, rigs drill for oil, but the wells also produce gas (associated gas). That gas comes whatever the gas price is, so oil prices and oil-directed drilling move U.S. gas supply. The Permian alone produces about a quarter of U.S. marketed gas, and its gas-oil ratio rises as wells age. Gas-directed rigs (Haynesville, Appalachia) respond to gas prices instead, and each one brings much more gas.

How the estimate works. For each region we take EIA's new-well gas production per rig (average of the latest 12 months). A lasting change of N rigs adds N × that much new production every month, starting after the lag. Each month's new wells then decline at the first-year decline rate (constant monthly rate). The extra production at a given month is the sum of all those batches still producing. Assumptions: 4-month lag from rig to first gas; 50% first-year decline for new wells' gas (shale gas wells typically lose 40–65% in year one; gas declines more slowly than oil in oil basins as the gas-oil ratio rises); productivity stays at its recent average; the DUC count stays the same, so completions move with drilling. It is a rule of thumb, not a forecast: it ignores pipeline limits (Permian gas takeaway in particular), flaring, and how rigs are spread across sub-basins. 1 Bcf/d of extra supply is about 7 Bcf a week less gas going into, or more coming out of, storage.

Sources. Regional rigs, wells, DUCs and new-well production: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook Table 10a (Drilling Productivity Metrics; rigs from Baker Hughes, wells from Enverus and FracFocus), which replaced the Drilling Productivity Report in June 2024. Regional marketed gas production and forecast: STEO Table 5a. U.S. oil and gas rigs since 1987: EIA drilling activity (monthly averages of the Baker Hughes weekly count). U.S. marketed gas production: EIA. Regional data starts in 2022 (the STEO window) and grows as each monthly release is archived. New-well production is marketed gas and is smoothed by EIA over 12 months.